Tuesday, August 16, 2011

China Mobile (tkr: 941 HK) - Establishment of China Mobile Finance Company

Are Chinese banks and local governments still solvent?  Recent actions by China Mobile seem to carry an ominous answer.

China Mobile announced the setting up of China Mobile Finance, whose primary business is in the "provision of financial management services" (read here for full announcement).  The details are very intriguing:
  • China Mobile will be contributing RMB4,600million in capital with CMCC (China Mobile's parent company) contributing RMB400million for a total of RMB5,000million in capital.
  • Of the scope of businesses (ten listed out with a catch all "other businesses as approved by CBRC"), what caught my attention were: (1) provision of guarantees, (2) trust loan and trust investment services, and (3) inter-bank lending business.
  • Rationale of the transaction: "to find a solution to further strengthen the internal funds management and better control liquidity risks, and to fully and better leverage the advantages on capital resources to improve the overall economic benefits of the Group" and "build a scientific and efficient funds management platform, strengthen the centralized management on internal
    funds and optimize the allocation of resources.  It is also expected that China Mobile Finance
    will be able to improve the cash flow position of the Group, control liquidity risks, reduce
    finance costs, increase capital efficiency and provide financial management services."
  • Connected transaction not subject to independent shareholders' approval and entered into after arm’s length negotiation between China Mobile and CMCC
Putting aside the corporate governance implications (whether this is "arm's length" or not), here is my interpretation:
  • The rationale does NOT make sense.  China Mobile has no business in financial services.  This does not "strengthen internal funds management", "control liquidity risks", or "reduce finance cost".  The whole statement is ludicrous.  The only truth is the last four words, which is: "to provide financial services".  Plain and simple, it has nothing to do with mobile communications.
  • Given all the recent reports about excessive local government debt (here), regulation/clamp down of trust loans (here) and bad debt at Chinese banks (here), there has been much talk about a central government bailout of local government and banks.  Therefore it is particularly intriguing to see China Mobile Finance's scope of business include "inter-bank lending" (provide liquidity to banks?), "provision of guarantees" (guarantee local government debt?) and "trust loans and trust investment services" (provide liquidity to... whoever).
  • Here is the key: The bureaucrats at China Mobile could not have come up with this, it is too far from their mandate and has too many political implications.  The decision to setup China Mobile Finance came straight from the top - Beijing / central government.  Liquidity constraint in the system has reached a breaking point and Beijing is acting!
What I don't understand is why use China Mobile as the financing vehicle?  Using a Hong Kong listed company makes the process cumbersome (regulatory scrutiny).  There ought to be an easier way of doing this.

In any case, this strikes me as a tip-off of things to come.

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